Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Marc Faber Q&A session on Gold



Watch the above video by clicking play.

Monday, April 28, 2014

All bubbles deflate at some point

The financial markets or asset markets, all of them are in large or small bubbles, and eventually will get deflated. 


Whether it's equities, bonds, real estate, paintings, vintage cars or apartments in Mayfair, London or Madison Avenue, New York, all these assets will come down in value because of credit collapse. I don't know when it will actually happen, but that is a risk for emerging economies.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Hong Kong properties are on sale

A Chinese recovery would essentially mean that the property market in China is not overheated, and that property prices will not decline. In which case, Hong Kong property companies would become rather attractive, because they sell, in some cases, at almost a 50 percent discount the net asset value.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Buy Hong Kong and Vietnam shares instead of Chinese shares

If you want to play a recovery in China, then I think you're better off buying Hong Kong shares, because in Hong Kong, you have reasonably good corporate governance, you have very-well-managed companies, which are owned largely by families. So the families are ready to be conservative in their dealings. They have low leverage. So if you believe that China is bottoming out and going up, I would own some Hong Kong shares, as I do.

Another recovery play—a market that has a similarly poor performance to China over the last few years—is Vietnam, which is very cheap, which has deleverage and improving fundamentals in terms of growing trade surplus, rising exports and so on. So I think Vietnam is better than China itself, if you believe in the Chinese recovery.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Bad market crash warning

I think there are some groups of stocks that are highly vulnerable because they're in cuckoo land in terms of valuations. They have no earnings. They're valued at price-to-sales. And this is not a good metric in the long run.

I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash. And I suspect it will be even worse. 

Monday, April 7, 2014

Bitcoin dependent on electricity and the "System"

I don’t know the value of a bitcoin. I own gold because when the system breaks down, I want to have some cash. With a bitcoin, there is a scenario where the system breaks down and you have no internet access and then what is the value of your bitcoin?

Thursday, April 3, 2014

US Stock Markets seem extended

We have had this huge expansion in the S&P level since 2009. The S&P was at 666, it went to over 1,800 and at some point we will have a bear market, 20 to 30 per cent. Since October 2011, we haven’t even had a 10 per cent correction.


Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Marc Faber: Gloom Boom Doom Report April 2014 - Market Commentary

Sherry Turkle, a psychologist and professor at M.I.T., and the author of  “Alone Together: Why We Expect More From Technology and Less From Each Other” opines that, “Human relationships are rich; they’re messy and demanding. We have learned the habit of cleaning them up with technology. And the move from conversation to connection is part of this. But it’s a process in which we shortchange ourselves. Worse, it seems that over time we stop caring, we forget that there is a difference. 

We are tempted to think that our little ‘sips’ of online connection add up to a big gulp of real conversation.....But they don’t. E-mail, Twitter, Facebook, all of these have their places - in politics, commerce, romance and friendship. But no matter how valuable, they do not substitute for conversation……In conversation we tend to one another….We can attend to tone and nuance. In conversation, we are called upon to see things from another’s point of view.”

Aside from discussing the merits of conversation, I also examine an ongoing shift in the stock market’s leadership away from high flying concept and momentum stocks into more defensive sectors.

I am enclosing two reports. The first report Break-even inflation – reflation time, and longer-term opportunities is by my friend Laeeth Isharc who is one of the smartest and most intellectual individuals that I know of. Isharc opines that, “The consensus narrative is ….that inflation is not an immediate problem, and that the central bank knows very well how to defeat inflation once it becomes evident.” He, however, believes that, “these concerns over deflation and weak growth will turn out to be mistaken, that it will be more difficult to control inflation than most anticipate, and that tactically the timing and entry level are right to take the other side of the trade and bet on reflation by entering a long break-even inflation position.”

The second report is by Jawad Mian who is a fund manager living in Dubai. In his most recent reflections he discusses the possibility of shorting US internet and biotech stocks and his views about inflation.



Via - www.Gloomboomdoom.com